Radico Khaitan’s focus on premium products is paying off, with its top-end brands gaining strong consumer acceptance and helping the company steadily improve its market share. Reflecting this confidence, brokerage firm Antique Stock Broking has retained its ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stock and raised its target price to ₹3,800 from ₹3,750, citing better visibility on volumes and profitability.
Premium brands lead growth
According to Antique, Radico’s flagship premium whisky, After Dark, is on track to sell around 3.5 million cases in FY26, a sharp jump from 1.9 million cases in FY25. The brand has already sold 1.5 million cases in the first half of the current financial year, highlighting strong demand. Another premium whisky, Royal Ranthambore, is also performing well, with volumes rising 90 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter and 67 per cent in the second quarter.
The company’s vodka portfolio continues to support overall growth. Magic Moments, one of India’s leading vodka brands, is benefiting from faster growth in the vodka segment compared with the broader liquor industry. New launches such as Russian Standard, Kashymr and Cashmir are encouraging consumers to experiment, further expanding the category.
Policy challenges balanced by new opportunities
While policy changes in some states have created short-term headwinds, Antique expects Radico to keep gaining market share. In Maharashtra, Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) volumes dropped by 25–30 per cent in October and November 2025 after changes in the state’s liquor policy. Entry-level premium brands may see some pressure as consumers hesitate to move from the earlier ₹120–140 price range to the new ₹180–190 levels.
However, these challenges are expected to be partly offset by steady gains in Andhra Pradesh, where Radico continues to strengthen its position. Antique also sees potential upside from Delhi and Bihar, as management has indicated that both states may announce favourable liquor policy changes in the near future.
Margins likely to improve
On the cost front, Antique sees a positive outlook for margins. Raw material prices are expected to remain stable, supported by better utilisation at glass manufacturing plants, including HNG’s facility, which had earlier been operating at low capacity. This should help contain glass price inflation.
Radico’s backward integration is another advantage. With its grain-based plant at Sitapur becoming operational in FY25, raw material costs are now more closely linked to grain prices rather than extra neutral alcohol (ENA). Since grain prices have corrected more sharply than ENA, Radico could see stronger margin expansion than its peers. ENA inflation linked to ethanol blending is also expected to ease due to ample grain availability.
Strong growth outlook
Antique has slightly increased its earnings estimates and values Radico Khaitan at 55 times its estimated H1FY28 earnings, a premium to its five-year average, reflecting confidence in the company’s premium-led growth story. The brokerage expects revenue, EBITDA and profit to grow at a compound annual rate of 18 per cent, 32 per cent and 44 per cent, respectively, between FY25 and FY28.
Driven by premiumisation, new product launches, lower debt and stable performance in the regular segment, Radico Khaitan is seen as well positioned to deliver strong earnings growth over the medium term.
